Monday, August 7, 2017

High stakes of the upcoming NAFTA renegotiation (& Trump's tweeting nonsense)

Trump is on vacation, & today he's been tweeting a lot more than usual:

Nevermind that Trump (who refused to serve in Vietnam) has no credibility with this type of personal attack, what Trump didn't tweet about today, was NAFTA. Which is a subject I wrote about a few days ago (en Español):
https://genxmillennlatino.blogspot.com/2017/08/que-va-suceder-con-el-tlcan-nafta-la.html

So today, I was very much interested when I came across this NYTimes article, titled "Trump's stalled agenda leaves industries in a lurch".

ttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/us/politics/trumps-stalled-trade-agenda-leaves-industries-in-a-lurch.html

Just like healthcare, despite Trump saying "nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated" when everybody knew it was, everyone also knows the complexity of trade policy. Take for the example, the ongoing dispute between Canada & the U.S. over lumber.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/08/07/canada-plays-down-prospect-solving-u-s-trade-dispute-over-lumber.html


"In April and then again in June, the Trump administration slapped duties on Canadian softwood lumber, reaching as high as 30% on some products. The U.S. accuses Canada of unfairly selling its lumber in the U.S. at prices below production costs, and providing subsidies to its producers. The Canadian government has repeatedly said there is no merit in the U.S. accusations.
In 2016, the U.S. imported over $5 billion worth of Canadian softwood lumber."
Both the U.S. & Canada want the lumber issue resolved before the NAFTA renegotiations so as to not complicate those already complex talks.
Taking that into account, these paragraphs from the NYTimes article are telling:

"In April, the Trump administration announced that it would impose new tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, saying the exports are unfairly subsidized. The proposed tariffs, which could be as high as 24 percent, have already led to a spike in lumber prices. According to Bloomberg data, they are up nearly 18 percent this year.
That has put the squeeze on American home builders, who rely heavily on Canadian lumber. The United States imported $5.7 billion in softwood lumber last year, mainly for residential building.
“The increase in cost is due to the trade war with Canada,” said Gerald Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders. “The availability of Canadian lumber is at risk, so the price is going higher.”
Builders are looking to Europe and Russia for lumber because Canada has become so expensive, Mr. Howard said. They are also passing costs on to buyers, which could become a drag on the housing market."
As you can see from the description above, the long-term consequences of the wrong implementation of change in policy can affect U.S. consumers; like those looking to buy a house right now (which are more expensive). & of course, besides the dispute over lumber & the upcoming renegotiation of NAFTA, there's other areas of concern, like American steel
(as noted below from the same NYTimes article):

'The Commerce Department was poised to deliver a report to Mr. Trump by the end of June with recommendations for steel tariffs, on the ground that cheap imports pose a national security threat. But the process became bogged down when industries that buy steel objected and other countries threatened retaliation. Mr. Trump said recently that dealing with steel was no longer a top priority, and Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, signaled to members of Congress in briefings last month that a decision was no longer imminent.
Continue reading the main story
'Dithering may have made the situation worse for American steel producers. Mr. Gerard said foreign competitors had been flooding the United States market with steel products in anticipation of the tariffs. Some of this is happening in parts of the country that voted for Mr. Trump.
“This has been a bit of a letdown in the industrial heartland,” said Mr. Gerard, who is based in Pittsburgh. “A lot of our members supported the president because of what he said about steel and manufacturing.”'
So while it's entertaining to see what Trump is tweeting about, other countries are probably not paying attention, instead they're all looking for a way to get ahead amidst the chaos & the circus. & it won't stop just because of Trump's latest incident of name-calling via social media.





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