17 people killed in Parkland, Florida school shooting

The 18th school shooting of 2018 happened today: http://time.com/5159039/florida-school-shooting-parkland/

"Wednesday’s school shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., was the 18th school shooting of 2018 — a year that’s not even two months old.

While many of these incidents — including the most recent before Wednesday’s shooting, one on Feb. 8 at New York City’s Metropolitan High School — did not result in any fatalities or injuries, schools nationwide have been rocked by gun violence in recent days. There have been school shootings in 13 states so far this year, according to Everytown for Gun Safety, a non-profit that advocates for gun control. Texas, California and Michigan have each seen at least two school shootings."

The shooting in Parkland was a massacre, 17 people killed. & it was a catastrophe for the community & for the country. Because the number of dead includes high school kids:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/14/us/parkland-school-shooting.html

'PARKLAND, Fla. — Seventeen people were killed in a shooting on Wednesday afternoon at a high school about an hour northwest of Miami, law enforcement officials said. The dead included adults and students.

Broward County Sheriff Scott Israel said the suspect is in custody.

“This is catastrophic,” he said. “There really are no words.”'

It's been almost 19 years since the Columbine high school massacre. 19 years which is the age of the Parkland murderer. I was searching for videos of the Columbine shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol_qKNFgUNg & it's amazing how nothing has changed. Since Columbine, there have been no solutions from the government; mass shootings have only gotten worse. 15 people were murdered in Columbine, the number of people murdered today in Parkland is at least 17.

Trump, the (alleged) wifebeater, & the pornstar

To be honest, I hadn't been paying much attention to political news. But I do try to watch the cable news channels regularly, therefore I knew the latest political controversy was about a wifebeater. There's so many characters associated with the Trump administration, so many names, that is hard to keep up. Thus my brain hasn't bothered to remember this particular (alleged) perpetrator's name.  

Today, I finally bothered to learn the (alleged) wifebeater's name; Rob Porter. It appears we have a White House where a wifebeater (Mr. Porter) was able to work without security clearance for more than a year. As a result, the House Oversight Committee (which is led by a republican) is launching an investigation:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/02/14/house-oversight-is-investigating-the-white-houses-handling-of-rob-porter-gowdy-says/"The chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee said Wednesday morning that the committee is investigating the White House’s employment of senior aide Rob Porter, after allegations emerged that Porter abused his two ex-wives."
In addition, according to the FBI, the Trump White House lied about it:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/us/politics/rob-porter-fbi-background-check.html
"WASHINGTON — The F.B.I. director, Christopher A. Wray, said on Tuesday that the bureau delivered final results in January of its background investigation into Rob Porter, the staff secretary who resigned in disgrace amid spousal abuse allegations. But the White House allowed Mr. Porter to continue serving in his post until the accusations surfaced publicly in press reports last week."

Also, the Stormy Daniels pornstar story is back in the news. 
A story which has never made much sense to me. I.e. what did Trump do with Stormy that would require a $130,000 pay out?

But anyways, today's news is Trump's lawyer Michael Cohen paid off the porn star (from his own pocket) out of the goodness of his heart (?): 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43055995
"The long-term personal lawyer of US President Donald Trump has admitted privately paying an adult film star $130,000 (£95,000) in 2016, in a statement to US media.

It follows US media reports that the porn actress known as Stormy Daniels was paid to sign an agreement stopping her discussing an alleged affair.

She first said she had a relationship with Mr Trump in a 2011 interview."

So yeah, on this Valentine's Day, a day in which we celebrate love and a sorta special holiday to show our appreciation & passion for women, Trump is forcing us to deal with men who beat their wives, & with men who pay off porn stars. 

Habra una solucion para los "Dreamers" antes de Marzo 5?

Para mi es bien frustrante, que siempre que la conversacion politica toca el tema de los "Dreamers", Trump comienza a hablar sobre los crimenes que cometen algunos (muy pocos) de los indocumentados. Estamos viviendo en un ambiente politico donde es aceptable estar constantemente atacando a la comunidad indocumentada como los peores criminales.

El juego de Trump es siempre hablar del MS-13 en referencia a los imigrantes Latinos ya sean ciudadanos, indocumentados o residentes legales. De esa manera, Trump trata de complacer a su base, y trata de renunciar a su obligacion de hacer algo por los "Dreamers".

Para Trump, ligar a todos los indocumentados con la mara salvatrucha es solo un juego politico: "anotar puntos" en contra de los democratas. Para la poblacion de "Dreamers" debe ser un recordatorio constante de la hostilidad y de la falta de accion por parte del gobierno Trump.

Ahora se habla de terminar con "chain migration". Que en realidad es la manera en que mi Papa logro que toda su familia (incluyendome a mi) fueran ciudadanos NorteAmericanos. Los republicanos (como David Perdue de Georgia) estan tratando de cerrar la puerta a las familias de los "Dreamers" para que nunca se puedan convertir en ciudadanos:

https://www.npr.org/2018/02/11/584523373/as-congress-debates-immigration-dreamers-are-in-limbo-along-with-their-families

"Any solution on DACA has got to include border security, including a wall. And an end of chain migration," said Republican Senator David Perdue of Georgia in remarks on the Senate floor last month.

Perdue and President Trump want the U.S. to allow in more immigrants with desirable skills. The current policy, which they call "chain migration," emphasizes family reunification. That change could have big implications for the DREAMers and their parents. Immigration hardliners worry that if the DREAMers are allowed to become citizens, their families could, too.

Es muy facil, ya que uno es ciudadano, cerrar la puerta a esos que aspiran ser ciudadanos tambien. Esa es la actitud de los republicanos y de su base. Sin embargo, si utilizas tu sentido comun, estas conciente de que cada vez hay mas gente NorteAmericana (baby-boomers) que se estan retirando. Y en el futuro, van a hacer falta mas trabajadores para pagar Medicare y el seguro social. 

Ademas, la poblacion de "Dreamers" son gente trabajadora, con estudios, muchos con sus propios negocios o con el deseo de comenzar negocios en un futuro. En otras palabras, son personas con derecho de convertirse en ciudadanos al igual que sus familia. 

En fin, espero que antes del cinco de Marzo (la fecha arbitraria que puso Trump), los legisladores, congresistas, y senadores sensatos, lleguen a un acuerdo sin hacer caso a los extremistas de la derecha (y a menor grado de la izquierda) y encuentren la manera de terminar con la incertidumbre con la que viven los "Dreamers" y sus familias.

Dow Jones plunges another 1,000 points, falls below 24,000

The markets are now in "correction territory" (fall of 10%). & the reasons vary depending on where you get your information from: 
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/08/business/stock-market-activity.html

"Major stock indexes dropped sharply late Thursday afternoon, falling into a market correction, as volatility returned after a brief respite. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell more than 3 percent and the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 3.5 percent, in a broad-based selloff as the end of trading approached.

A correction is fall of 10 percent from the market’s recent peak. A decline of 20 percent would mark the start of a bear market in stocks."

One of the causes, is the recent high-volatility in the markets & its effect on trading strategies:  
http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-dow-jones-industrial-average-february-8-2018-2
"Stocks have failed to hold a strong rebound since Friday, when a better-than-expected report on wages increased worries about higher US inflation. The selling continued this week, worsened by technical factors including the implosion of trading strategies that had bet on low volatility."

Another cause, is the rise in the 10-year treasury yield:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/us-stock-futures-dow-data-earnings-market-sell-off-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

"Stocks closed lower on Wednesday after trading in a wide range again as interest rates climbed back toward multi-year highs.

The S&P 500 pulled back 0.5 percent to 2,681.66 after rising as much as 1.2 percent, logging its biggest one-day reversal since February 2016. TheDow Jones industrial average closed 19.42 points lower at 24,893.35, notching its biggest reversal since August 2015. The index rose as much as 381 points and fell as much as 127 points.

The indexes began losing steam in afternoon trade shortly after a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, rekindling the worry that sparked this cascading market plunge last Friday."

As well as fear the Fed will eventually raise interest rates to "try to cool the economy":
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/07/upshot/the-stock-market-is-worried-about-inflation-should-it-be.html

"But if the overheating/Phillips Curve 

narrative is coming true, the Fed will have 

to raise interest rates to try to cool the

economy, which would make capital more 

costly for businesses and dampen consumer 

spending. 

That’s all bad news for stocks.

What happened Friday was that a wage number 

was published that was consistent with the 

overheating/Phillips Curve story of how the 

economy works, which is a big reason markets 

sold off."

In addition, the "emergency stimulus" from major central banks is coming to an end:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/08/dow-jones-sinks-again-as-bond-yields-rise-and-higher-inflation-feared

"The trigger for the latest sell-off was a jump in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds – seen as a key indicator of inflationary pressure and the likelihood of higher interest rates.

Ten-year bond yields climbed to almost 2.9%, with markets speculating about whether they would hit 3% over the coming days.

Rising bond yields – coupled with a strong signal from the Bank of England that an interest rate increase was on the way – added to expectations that the world’s major central banks are now firmly on course to wind down the emergency stimulus they have pumped through the financial system since 2009, driving an almost decade-long stock market rally." 

Finally, the 4.15 percentage loss (still a 10% slide from its record high), wasn't as historically bad (as far as optics), as the 1,032 point loss which is "the second-worst fall in history, eclipsed only by Monday's 1,175 point plunge":

https://news.sky.com/story/us-stocks-tumble-as-dow-sheds-another-1000-points-11241872

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1,032 points (or 4.15%), meaning it is 10% down from the record high it reached two weeks ago.

 This also puts it in what is known on Wall Street as a "correction".

It is the second-worst fall in history, eclipsed only by Monday's 1,175-point plunge.

The broad-based S&P 500 dropped 100 points or 3.75%, and the tech-rich Nasdaq was down 3.9%."

Dow plunges 1,100 + points, almost back to 24,000

Same as last friday, today the Dow Jones Industrial average fell again. But this time, it happened in a more precipitous manner. Last week it fell below 26,000, today it was below 25,000. I was watching the Ali Velshi hour on MSNBC when the Dow Jones actually fell by 1600 points or 6%(!). I couldn't believe it. & panic sentiment by investors is the first thing that came to mind since the pundits didn't have a clear explanation. 

The explanations that are being given, vary from the modest pickup in wages:
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/05/583325123/stocks-extend-losses-with-dow-dropping-more-than-300-points-at-the-open
"Market participants were focused on the threat of higher inflation after Friday's jobs report showed a pickup in wages, which portends more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve."

To the selloff in the bond market:
http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/05/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones/index.html
"Investors' main concern is the selloff in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which moves opposite price, spiked to a four-year high of 2.85% on Friday. It's a dramatic swing from 2.4% at the start of 2018. Higher yields could make normally boring bonds look more attractive when compared with risky stocks."

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-dow-jones-set-for-another-selloff-2018-2-1014967934

"Traders are flocking to the safety of US Treasurys amid the selloff in stocks, with the 10-year yield down 5 basis points at 2.80%. Bond yields tend to go down as demand, and therefore prices, go up. The benchmark yield hit 2.85% after Friday’s jobs report, its highest since January 2014."

Even the political tension in Washington:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/feb/05/stock-markets-slide-global-sell-off-service-sector-bitcoin-business-live

"Christopher Vecchio of Daily FX suspects that the political tensions in Washington are contributing to the declines."

Speaking of political tension, tonight some pundit even mentioned (though in a joking manner) that some people may even be labeling it as the "Nunes drop". One thing is for sure, volatility and market volume surged today. & since the market was overextended this correction was imminent, especially after the euphoria from the "Trump bump". However, now the next phase (or if this will be a fundamental shift in the markets) will be difficult to determine. Here's what CNBC is reporting about the stock futures:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/sell-off-continues-after-hours--sp-500-futures-now-down-6-percent-on-the-day.html

"Stocks looked set for another rocky opening and a volatile trading day Tuesday.

Stock futures slid into negative territory in Monday evening trade: Dow futures were down 628 points, and S&P 500 futures were lower by 57.25 points as of 11:10 p.m. ET.

The implied open for the Dow, based on futures, was a decline of 1,005.75."

Who will win the super bowl? Patriots vs Eagles

It's time for the Superbowl: Patriots vs Eagles.

Here's what the press was saying about the Patriots a few weeks ago, when New England was facing Jacksonville for the AFC Championship:
http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4810539/jaguars-built-in-a-way-that-could-hit-at-patriots-vulnerabilities

"FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The New England Patriots are heavily favored over the Jacksonville Jaguars in this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, and understandably so. They are playing at home, have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and a defense that just set a franchise record for most sacks in a playoff game.

So what has to happen for the Jaguars to have a chance at the upset, and why should Patriots followers possibly believe that Jacksonville is equipped to potentially pull it off?"

Back then, a lot was made about Brady's supposed injury:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22152684/patriots-coach-bill-belichick-barely-addresses-quarterback-tom-brady-injury

'Asked for his level of concern about Brady carrying out his responsibilities in Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Belichick said, "I don't know. We'll see."'

Here's what the press was saying about the Eagles vs. Vikings game a few weeks ago before their matchup for the NFC championship:
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfc-championship-vikings-eagles-matchup-preview-prediction-analysis/bpw61z8eiqzu1l8n2ffikd5dj
"The No. 1 seed Eagles (14-3) and No. 2 seed Vikings (14-3) have been working toward their matchup in Sunday's NFC championship game all season. Despite the attention they're getting for arriving with Nick Foles and Case Keenum as their quarterbacks, the teams have won big because of the basics."

I haven't had good luck predicting the winners of these last few playoff games. Furthermore, I was sure (& I wanted) the Vikings to win the NFC championship since the super-bowl is in Minnesota but...Whatever. Now we're here, Patriots yet again, this time versus the Eagles in the biggest sports event in the world. 
However, like most everyone else in America, now I'd like for the Eagles to win since they're the "under-dogs". 
Although, here's what Brady said recently about the term "under-dogs" in reference to the Eagles:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/sports/super-bowl-prediction.html

'When asked about the dog masks that Philadelphia Eagles players and their fans have been wearing to celebrate the team’s underdog status throughout the N.F.L. playoffs, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, as he often does, swatted the question to the ground.

“They’re not underdogs,” he said. “They’re 13-3. You can’t be the underdog when you’re the No. 1 seed in the N.F.C. There’s no underdogs in this game.” '

The Eagles may not be "under-dogs" but unlike New England, Philadelphia has never won a Super Bowl:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots/2018/02/guregian_patriots_vs_eagles_who_has_the_edge_in_super_bowl_lii

"BLOOMINGTON, Minn. — The Patriots will be trying to go back-to-back and match the Steelers with a record six Super Bowl titles on Sunday when they battle the Eagles in Super Bowl LII at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Interestingly, they’ll be squaring off with a team that’s one of 13 NFL franchises never to win a Super Bowl, as the Eagles are 0-2 in the big game with losses to the Raiders in Super Bowl XV and the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX."

Nevertheless, as much as I'd like Philadelphia to finally get a Super Bowl (& I was impressed with the Eagles in the last couple playoff games), I still believe New England will win today in a close game. Eagles 31, Patriots 34.

Dow sinks 660 + points, drops well below 26,000

The day started with good economic news. The government announced there had been a 2.9% increase in average hourly earnings over the past year: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42921615

"US payrolls expanded by 200,000 last month, driven by hiring in construction, food services and health care, the US Labor Department said.

The average hourly wage for private sector workers crept up 2.9% compared to January 2017.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. 

Economists have puzzled over lacklustre wage growth, which has lagged in prior months despite the decline in the unemployment rate."

According to the NYTimes article linked below, wage increases overall have been "Lagging as job growth continues", because of a collapse in union membership (among other reasons): 
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/01/business/economy/wages-salaries-job-market.html
"A collapse in the rate of union membership for private-sector employees — to 6.5 percent last year from the upper teens in the early 1980s — appears to have played a key role in holding down wages. This is partly because unions benefit workers directly: Average pay for workers represented by unions tends to be higher than for those who aren’t, even after controlling for education and other characteristics."

Nevertheless, even this modest increase in wages, concerned the markets. This CNN article explains why:
http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/02/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html

"The other concern: Wage growth could be a sign that inflation, which has been mysteriously low for years, may heat up. That would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster than investors may be comfortable with.

Those concerns are showing up in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield reached a four-year high of 2.84% on Friday. It was at about 2.4% at the start of the year.

Some investors are worried they could climb high enough to slow the economy by raising borrowing costs. They also worry that higher returns on bonds will make stocks look less attractive by comparison."

Another factor affecting the markets was the fear of rising interest rates:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/02/us-futures-move-lower-as-investors-worry-about-rising-yields.html

'"The key for the market today is rising interest rates," said Mike Baele, managing director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. "The old adage is: 'Bull markets don't die of old age, they are killed by higher interest rates.' That looms large."'

As well as Energy companies' earnings:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/markets-now-us-stock-indexes-open-lower-52793480

"Energy companies fell more than the rest of the market Friday after Exxon Mobil and Chevron reported disappointing results."

All these concerns culminated in the Dow Jones falling 665.75 to 25,520.96.
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/02/582809604/dow-plummets-more-550-points

"The Dow closed at 25,520.96. With a loss about 1,000 points since Monday, it was the blue chip index's worst weekly performance in 2 years. Other major indexes fell about 2 percent Friday. The broader S&P 500 fell 60 points, to 2,762.13; the Nasdaq index lost 145 points, closing at 7,240.95."

 

The Dow Jones had dropped earlier this week but it bounced back, will it happen again? Or is this the beginning of a "bear market"?